Predictable unpredictability

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Expect The Unexpected: Margy Keefe wins silver medal at 2005 World Swimming Championships in Montreal, Canada. Photo by Dr. Jim Miller
noun - Predictable unpredictability is a commonly understood mantra of open water swimming. It is a fundamental understanding, deep appreciation and common experience among open water swimmers and triathletes that the elements (e.g., wind, waves, currents, tides, marine life, water temperature, rain, lightening or fog), course (e.g., turn buoy placement, course layout, feeding station, start, finish structure, boating traffic, shoreline distance, official boat or kayak placement, escort boat fumes, mechanical boat failure), competition (pacing and positioning relative to other male, female and/or wetsuited swimmers or division separation) and one's own physical conditions (due to seasickness, lack of hydration or ill feeling to due food or drink mixtures, stamina or strength) can present open water swimmers with unplanned surprises and unexpected circumstances during an open water swimming competition, solo swim or relay that requires athletes, coaches, pilots, support crew, safety personnel and officials to adapt and accommodate to the situation.

The swimmers expect the unexpected after the race director told them of the winds and rain that will hit the shoreline tomorrow.


Example of Predictable Unpredictability

Most fans did not expect Maarten van der Weijden to win the gold medal at the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games or Hungary's Eva Risztov to win the gold medal at the 2012 London Olympic Games in the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim.

Predictability of Unpredictability

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Predictability of Unpredictability:


Expect The Unexpected, also view Black Swan Theory

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